How to measure whether an initiative helped

A youth association runs a reading club for a year. They meet every Saturday. They collect books. They take great photos. At the end of the year, they write a report: "We held 48 sessions and reached 200 children. It was a great success!"

But was it? Did the children actually read better? Did they enjoy reading more? Did they borrow books at home? Nobody knows — because nobody measured.

Many community initiatives, school projects and small NGOs do valuable work. But without measurement, they can't prove it, improve it or convince others to support it.

How can a community group, school or small organisation measure whether its initiative really helped — without expensive experts?

Why measuring matters

• To learn: What's working? What isn't? What should we change?
• To improve: Adjust activities based on evidence.
• To be accountable: Show the community and funders what happened to their time and money.
• To grow: Evidence attracts partners, volunteers and funding.
• To avoid harm: Sometimes projects have unexpected negative effects. Measuring helps catch them.

Economists Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo — who won the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics with Michael Kremer for their experimental approach to fighting poverty — showed that careful measurement can reveal surprising results: some popular programmes had little effect, while simple, cheap interventions sometimes had big impacts.

Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer won the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty" — including work in Kenya and India. (Nobel Prize) Measuring what works has become one of the most important tools in development.

Activities vs. results

The first lesson in measurement: don't confuse activities with results.

• Activities (outputs): what you did. "We held 48 reading sessions."
• Outcomes: what changed for people. "Children's reading scores improved; 70% now borrow books weekly."
• Impact: the long-term, bigger change. "More children pass their exams and continue school."

Many reports only count activities. Good measurement looks at outcomes too.

Joke break: A group reported, "We distributed 1,000 mosquito nets!" A funder asked, "Are people sleeping under them?" Silence. Someone finally said, "Well… some of them are very good fishing nets now." That's why we measure outcomes, not just activities.

Step 1: Write your theory of change

A "theory of change" is a simple explanation of how your activities are supposed to lead to results. Write it as a chain of "if… then…" statements:

"If we run weekly reading sessions with fun books, then children will enjoy reading more. If children enjoy reading more, then they will read more at home. If they read more, then their reading skills will improve."

This helps you see what to measure at each step — and where your assumptions might be wrong.

Step 2: Choose a few good indicators

An indicator is something you can measure that shows change. Good indicators are SMART:

• Specific
• Measurable
• Achievable
• Relevant
• Time-bound

For the reading club:

• % of children who can read a short paragraph correctly (start vs. end of year).
• Number of books borrowed per child per month.
• % of children who say they enjoy reading.

Choose 3–5 indicators. Too many and you'll drown in data.

Step 3: Measure before you start (the baseline)

You can't show change without knowing where you started. A baseline is a measurement taken before (or at the very start of) your initiative.

For the reading club: test each child's reading at the start with a simple, consistent method (for example, a short passage and a few questions).

No baseline? You can still ask people to compare "before and after" — but it's less reliable.

Step 4: Collect data regularly (monitoring)

Monitoring means collecting information during the project:

• Attendance lists.
• Books borrowed.
• Short feedback from participants.
• Notes on challenges.

Keep it simple: a notebook, a spreadsheet or a free tool like Google Forms or KoboToolbox. See Why local action needs good information.

Step 5: Measure at the end (and compare)

Repeat the baseline measurement at the end. Compare:

• Did reading scores improve? By how much?
• Did book borrowing increase?
• Did enjoyment increase?

Step 6: Ask "compared to what?"

Here's the tricky part. If children's reading improved, was it because of your club — or would they have improved anyway (because they're a year older and in school)?

This is called the "counterfactual": what would have happened without your initiative?

Ways to think about it:

• Comparison group: measure children who didn't attend the club (similar age and school). If club children improved more, that's stronger evidence.
• Randomised trials: the gold standard, used by researchers like Banerjee, Duflo and Kremer — randomly assign who gets the programme. Often too complex for small groups, but useful to understand.
• Common sense and honesty: acknowledge other factors that might explain changes.

You don't need perfect science. You need honesty about what your data can and can't show.

"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." — often attributed to Albert Einstein (actually from sociologist William Bruce Cameron, 1963)

Step 7: Listen to stories too

Numbers don't capture everything. Collect stories:

• "Before, my daughter hid when asked to read. Now she reads to her little brother."
• "I didn't know the library existed. Now I go every week."

A method called "Most Significant Change" asks participants: "What's the most important change you've experienced because of this project, and why?" It's simple, powerful and widely used in development work.

Combine numbers and stories for a full picture.

Step 8: Share results honestly — including failures

Share results with:

• Participants and community (first!).
• Volunteers and partners.
• Funders and authorities.

Be honest about what didn't work. Organisations like Engineers Without Borders Canada have published "Failure Reports" to share lessons openly. Admitting failure builds trust and helps others avoid the same mistakes.

Step 9: Use what you learn

Measurement is useless if nothing changes. After reviewing results:

• Keep what worked.
• Change or stop what didn't.
• Test new ideas.
• Update your theory of change.

Simple measurement ideas for common projects

• Clean-up campaign: photos before/after at fixed points; number of rubbish piles; % of households subscribed to collection. See What it takes to keep a street clean together.
• Tree planting: number planted; % surviving after 6 and 12 months.
• Training programme: skills test before/after; % using skills or employed 6 months later.
• Health awareness: knowledge quiz before/after; behaviour changes (e.g., bed net use).
• Youth council: number of proposals made; % adopted by authorities. See How young people can join local decisions.
• Safety project: residents' sense of safety before/after; incidents reported. See Simple steps towards safer public spaces.

Common mistakes to avoid

• Measuring only activities.
• No baseline.
• Too many indicators.
• Collecting data you never analyse.
• Only reporting good news.
• Ignoring participants' voices.
• Claiming all change was caused by your project.

An illustrative story: the tree-planting surprise

A youth group (illustrative) planted 1,000 trees in one day and celebrated on social media. Six months later, they decided to measure survival. Only 280 trees were alive. Many had died from lack of water; some had been eaten by goats.

At first, they were embarrassed. Then they learned. Next season, they planted fewer trees (300), chose drought-resistant species, partnered with families who agreed to water and protect each tree, and built simple fences. After a year, 250 trees survived — almost as many as before, with a third of the effort.

Measurement didn't make them look bad. It made them better.

A one-page measurement plan

For small groups, one page is enough:

• Goal: What change do we want?
• Indicators (3–5): How will we know?
• Baseline: What are the numbers now?
• Target: What do we hope for by the end?
• Method: How and when will we collect data?
• Who: Who is responsible?
• Sharing: How will we share results?

Fill it in before the project starts. Review it halfway. Complete it at the end.

Measure to learn, not to impress

Measuring impact isn't about producing beautiful reports for donors. It's about learning whether your hard work is actually helping — and how to help more.

Start simple: pick three indicators, measure before and after, listen to stories, share honestly and adjust.

Your community deserves initiatives that work. Measurement is how you find out.

Keep reading: How to turn a conversation into a project, Ten questions to ask someone building change, and our Africa & Action section.

Questions

How do I measure the impact of a community project?

Write a theory of change, choose 3–5 indicators, measure a baseline, monitor during the project, measure again at the end, compare, collect stories and share results honestly.

What is the difference between outputs and outcomes?

Outputs are what you did (e.g., sessions held); outcomes are what changed for people (e.g., improved skills or behaviour).

What is a baseline?

A measurement taken before or at the start of a project, used to compare with later results.